Can’t score in Denver? Take it down

Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals the weekly NFL betting tip in his Throwing Darts column. See where he’s lining up for Week 11. All lines courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

We had our second loss of the season last week, a 2-3 loss in part due to Chicago’s collapse against Detroit. That’s part of the game. Sometimes you sneak out games that seem lost, sometimes you find a way to lose games that seem safe.

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We’re still happy to sit 31-17-2 on the year, against point differential of course.

Let’s see what looks good for Week 11:

Bears +3 on Falcons

Chicago is a flawed team, I get that, but they should have beaten the Commanders in Week 6 and the Bears have scored 123 points over the last four weeks. The light came on for Justin Fields. And for all the supposed talent in Atlanta’s offense, the Falcons have 315 yards or less in four of their last five starts. Have fun watching Marcus Mariota airmail shipment of an open Kyle Pitts.

Justin Fields’ midseason 180 was one of the biggest stories in the NFL this year. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Giants -3 vs. Lions

The line looks amazing if you focus on win/loss records, but of course, the deeper metrics are worth more and these suggest these teams are pretty much even. But Detroit has had an unpleasant split in recent years, and while I like Dan Campbell’s personality and energy, I trust Brian Daboll a lot more on Sundays.

Cowboys -1.5 at Vikings

This is one of those emotional zig-zag spots where you root for the Vikings after their shocking win in Buffalo and root for the Cowboys after they somehow gave a game to the mediocre Packers.

Broncos-Raiders Under 41.5

I rarely give totals, and it’s with a touch of sadness, because I feel like I’ve already missed the big Broncos on offer. Denver’s games have gone under eight times in nine weeks, tied with an offense that can’t score and a defense that’s easily in the top five. The key to staying under 41.5 here will be Derek Carr and Russell Wilson avoiding turnovers, and while neither is playing particularly well right now, I expect them to at least take care of the ball. Let’s bet nothing much happens for three hours.

I get it, it’s scary picking against Kansas City most weeks. But the Chargers can get healthy at the right time, and six points is a lot for a home underdog who isn’t a punching bag.

Last week: 2-3

Time: 31-17-2

Pianow’s All-Time Throwing Darts Record (Only Two Losing Seasons in 13 Years) and Weekly Results 2022 are listed here.

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